#109 Texas State (14-5)

avg: 946.78  •  sd: 90.7  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
198 North Texas** Win 12-1 688.01 Ignored Feb 4th Antifreeze
112 Rice Win 11-5 1507.62 Feb 4th Antifreeze
218 Texas-B** Win 9-2 181.01 Ignored Feb 4th Antifreeze
23 Texas-Dallas** Loss 2-8 1139.5 Ignored Feb 4th Antifreeze
147 Sam Houston Win 8-4 1187.98 Feb 5th Antifreeze
83 Trinity Win 8-7 1242.18 Feb 5th Antifreeze
23 Texas-Dallas Loss 7-9 1460.16 Feb 5th Antifreeze
136 Alabama Win 10-5 1296.26 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
167 Jacksonville State Win 11-6 996.02 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
179 LSU Win 9-2 947.6 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
82 Central Florida Loss 5-7 801.98 Feb 26th Mardi Gras XXXV
83 Trinity Win 9-4 1717.18 Feb 26th Mardi Gras XXXV
171 Illinois Win 12-9 754.35 Mar 18th Womens Centex1
104 Iowa Loss 7-11 499.97 Mar 18th Womens Centex1
190 Colorado-B Win 9-6 647.75 Mar 18th Womens Centex1
112 Rice Loss 6-13 307.62 Mar 18th Womens Centex1
171 Illinois Win 7-2 1008.98 Mar 19th Womens Centex1
179 LSU Win 13-10 675.74 Mar 19th Womens Centex1
182 Texas-San Antonio** Win 15-4 875.87 Ignored Mar 19th Womens Centex1
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)