#130 Northern Arizona (8-6)

avg: 861.82  •  sd: 79.18  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
120 Denver Loss 5-10 354.94 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2020
183 Arizona Win 12-6 1025.13 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2020
256 Arizona-B** Win 13-1 600 Ignored Jan 25th New Year Fest 2020
54 New Mexico Loss 6-11 850.32 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2020
148 Arizona State Loss 5-7 405.42 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2020
86 San Diego State University Loss 4-11 574.11 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2020
206 Idaho** Win 13-2 813.69 Ignored Feb 29th Big Sky Brawl 2020
36 Brigham Young** Loss 2-13 967.15 Ignored Feb 29th Big Sky Brawl 2020
133 Oregon State Loss 8-9 714.4 Feb 29th Big Sky Brawl 2020
144 Nevada-Reno Win 8-3 1376.46 Feb 29th Big Sky Brawl 2020
188 Boise State Win 5-3 821.23 Mar 1st Big Sky Brawl 2020
197 Montana Win 11-3 899.52 Mar 1st Big Sky Brawl 2020
136 Montana State University Win 9-8 948.08 Mar 1st Big Sky Brawl 2020
133 Oregon State Win 6-3 1386.09 Mar 1st Big Sky Brawl 2020
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)