#274 Wooster (0-11)

avg: -214.18  •  sd: 120.38  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
259 East Carolina Loss 9-11 -176.05 Feb 9th Ultimate Galentines Celebration 2019
223 Elon Loss 3-13 -216.78 Feb 9th Ultimate Galentines Celebration 2019
203 Wake Forest** Loss 4-13 -91.49 Ignored Feb 9th Ultimate Galentines Celebration 2019
71 William & Mary** Loss 0-13 726.62 Ignored Feb 10th Ultimate Galentines Celebration 2019
153 Virginia Tech** Loss 3-11 260.33 Ignored Feb 10th Ultimate Galentines Celebration 2019
252 Northern Michigan Loss 7-9 -155.18 Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
265 Notre Dame-B Loss 6-8 -304.89 Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
126 North Park** Loss 0-13 412.13 Ignored Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
178 Wheaton College IL** Loss 3-13 55.76 Ignored Mar 30th Black Penguins Classic 2019
215 Olivet Nazarene** Loss 6-15 -166.94 Ignored Mar 31st Black Penguins Classic 2019
167 Knox** Loss 3-15 169.94 Ignored Mar 31st Black Penguins Classic 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)