#78 Central Florida (8-7)

avg: 1236.59  •  sd: 94.95  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
147 Georgia State Win 4-2 1257.08 Jan 25th Clutch Classic 2020
199 Belmont** Win 10-2 872.48 Ignored Jan 25th Clutch Classic 2020
47 Alabama Loss 6-7 1334.81 Jan 25th Clutch Classic 2020
93 Tennessee Win 13-3 1707.96 Jan 25th Clutch Classic 2020
42 George Washington Win 5-3 1961.34 Jan 26th Clutch Classic 2020
6 Georgia Tech Loss 5-10 1558.41 Jan 26th Clutch Classic 2020
72 Emory Loss 3-4 1152.36 Jan 26th Clutch Classic 2020
53 Kennesaw State Loss 4-6 1034.75 Jan 26th Clutch Classic 2020
106 Indiana Loss 8-9 918.16 Feb 29th Mardi Gras XXXIII
169 Florida-B** Win 12-4 1134.58 Ignored Feb 29th Mardi Gras XXXIII
141 LSU Win 7-3 1401.8 Feb 29th Mardi Gras XXXIII
77 Texas State Win 8-6 1540.95 Feb 29th Mardi Gras XXXIII
160 St Benedict** Win 13-4 1192.68 Ignored Mar 1st Mardi Gras XXXIII
103 Mississippi State Loss 4-9 454.64 Mar 1st Mardi Gras XXXIII
47 Alabama Loss 1-8 859.81 Mar 1st Mardi Gras XXXIII
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)