#116 Air Force (6-7)

avg: 1047.21  •  sd: 80.38  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
136 Occidental Win 10-6 1434.31 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2019
129 Pacific Lutheran Loss 8-10 736.87 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2019
118 Arizona Loss 6-8 739.22 Feb 9th Stanford Open 2019
88 John Brown Loss 3-10 626.55 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2019
35 Truman State Loss 4-9 1084.45 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2019
125 St Benedict Loss 8-11 647.08 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2019
148 Marquette Win 10-5 1454.83 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2019
202 Colorado School of Mines Win 12-7 1052.25 Mar 16th Air Force Invite 2019
175 Kansas Win 10-5 1291.14 Mar 16th Air Force Invite 2019
74 Denver Loss 4-8 757.07 Mar 16th Air Force Invite 2019
202 Colorado School of Mines Win 12-4 1131.74 Mar 17th Air Force Invite 2019
175 Kansas Win 13-5 1317.25 Mar 17th Air Force Invite 2019
74 Denver Loss 9-10 1196.88 Mar 17th Air Force Invite 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)