#20 North Carolina-Wilmington (17-9)

avg: 1960.18  •  sd: 65.03  •  top 16/20: 55.6%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
8 Dartmouth Loss 8-13 1662.69 Jan 19th Florida Winter Classic 2019
26 Georgia Loss 7-9 1568.96 Jan 19th Florida Winter Classic 2019
51 Florida State Win 10-5 2082.25 Jan 19th Florida Winter Classic 2019
112 Central Florida** Win 10-3 1654.26 Ignored Jan 19th Florida Winter Classic 2019
38 Florida Loss 11-12 1486.11 Jan 20th Florida Winter Classic 2019
43 Georgia Tech Win 9-8 1680.59 Jan 20th Florida Winter Classic 2019
51 Florida State Win 9-7 1787.69 Jan 20th Florida Winter Classic 2019
1 North Carolina Loss 5-12 1930.07 Feb 9th Queen City Tune Up 2019 Women
43 Georgia Tech Win 13-5 2155.59 Feb 9th Queen City Tune Up 2019 Women
32 Brigham Young Win 8-5 2164.09 Feb 9th Queen City Tune Up 2019 Women
91 Case Western Reserve** Win 12-3 1802.67 Ignored Feb 9th Queen City Tune Up 2019 Women
3 Ohio State Loss 12-13 2248 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2019 Women
22 Tufts Loss 10-11 1809.61 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2019 Women
26 Georgia Win 13-10 2176.44 Feb 10th Queen City Tune Up 2019 Women
3 Ohio State Loss 4-8 1808.19 Feb 23rd Commonwealth Cup 2019
40 Michigan Win 9-1 2169.43 Feb 23rd Commonwealth Cup 2019
11 Pittsburgh Loss 7-10 1693.6 Feb 23rd Commonwealth Cup 2019
22 Tufts Win 13-7 2492.14 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup 2019
8 Dartmouth Loss 8-13 1662.69 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup 2019
46 Middlebury Win 11-10 1663.47 Mar 23rd College Southerns XVIII
225 Florida-B** Win 13-0 962.25 Ignored Mar 23rd College Southerns XVIII
128 North Georgia** Win 13-2 1605.34 Ignored Mar 23rd College Southerns XVIII
64 Carleton College-Eclipse Win 13-2 2005.19 Mar 23rd College Southerns XVIII
70 Maryland** Win 15-2 1928.26 Ignored Mar 24th College Southerns XVIII
49 Emory Win 15-1 2118.42 Mar 24th College Southerns XVIII
28 North Carolina State Win 13-6 2373.66 Mar 29th Atlantic Coast Showcase 32919
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)