#163 Jacksonville State (7-9)

avg: 261.02  •  sd: 85.41  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
138 Alabama Loss 5-10 -20.06 Jan 28th T Town Throwdown1
202 Emory-B** Win 13-2 -181.4 Ignored Jan 28th T Town Throwdown1
127 Union (Tennessee) Loss 0-7 66.46 Jan 28th T Town Throwdown1
202 Emory-B** Win 13-1 -181.4 Ignored Jan 29th T Town Throwdown1
127 Union (Tennessee) Loss 2-9 66.46 Jan 29th T Town Throwdown1
133 Emory Loss 3-9 -0.37 Jan 29th T Town Throwdown1
138 Alabama Loss 1-11 -46.16 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
110 Texas State Loss 6-11 287.29 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
168 LSU Win 9-4 829.32 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXV
143 Sam Houston Loss 6-12 -87.44 Feb 26th Mardi Gras XXXV
188 Miami (Florida) Win 11-0 500.12 Feb 26th Mardi Gras XXXV
196 South Florida Win 13-2 263.56 Mar 11th Tally Classic XVII
97 Clemson** Loss 2-12 317.07 Mar 11th Tally Classic XVII
192 Florida Tech Win 10-4 373.23 Mar 11th Tally Classic XVII
25 Notre Dame** Loss 1-13 953.33 Ignored Mar 11th Tally Classic XVII
174 Tulane Win 7-4 662.74 Mar 12th Tally Classic XVII
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)