#31 Florida State (10-4)

avg: 1663.97  •  sd: 91.97  •  top 16/20: 1.1%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
25 Georgia Loss 9-10 1650.26 Jan 18th Florida Winter Classic 2020
11 Dartmouth Loss 8-10 1772.95 Jan 18th Florida Winter Classic 2020
74 South Florida Win 8-4 1828.58 Jan 18th Florida Winter Classic 2020
56 North Carolina-Wilmington Win 11-3 1984.72 Jan 18th Florida Winter Classic 2020
15 Florida Loss 8-15 1413.39 Jan 19th Florida Winter Classic 2020
98 North Georgia Win 15-1 1672.34 Jan 19th Florida Winter Classic 2020
74 South Florida Win 15-5 1863.77 Jan 19th Florida Winter Classic 2020
173 Jacksonville State** Win 10-1 1120.26 Ignored Feb 15th Are we in love or just 2020
72 Emory Win 11-2 1877.36 Feb 15th Are we in love or just 2020
154 Wisconsin-Milwaukee** Win 11-3 1290.05 Ignored Feb 15th Are we in love or just 2020
199 Belmont** Win 11-0 872.48 Ignored Feb 15th Are we in love or just 2020
30 Vanderbilt Loss 6-11 1131.44 Feb 16th Are we in love or just 2020
117 Iowa State** Win 10-4 1559.25 Ignored Feb 16th Are we in love or just 2020
117 Iowa State Win 7-3 1559.25 Feb 16th Are we in love or just 2020
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)