#59 Washington University (7-7)

avg: 1361.69  •  sd: 78.88  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
14 UCLA** Loss 3-13 1388.29 Ignored Jan 25th Santa Barbara Invite 2020
9 Stanford Loss 6-10 1608.98 Jan 25th Santa Barbara Invite 2020
8 Northeastern** Loss 2-13 1506.64 Ignored Jan 25th Santa Barbara Invite 2020
58 California-Santa Cruz Loss 8-9 1241.65 Jan 26th Santa Barbara Invite 2020
52 Victoria Win 10-9 1533.07 Jan 26th Santa Barbara Invite 2020
137 Iowa Win 12-2 1417.29 Mar 7th Midwest Throwdown 2020
135 John Brown Win 13-4 1425.02 Mar 7th Midwest Throwdown 2020
192 Grinnell** Win 12-3 923.78 Ignored Mar 7th Midwest Throwdown 2020
229 Missouri** Win 13-2 467.53 Ignored Mar 7th Midwest Throwdown 2020
73 Truman State Loss 7-8 1151.3 Mar 8th Midwest Throwdown 2020
137 Iowa Win 10-2 1417.29 Mar 8th Midwest Throwdown 2020
57 Kansas Loss 6-7 1245.45 Mar 8th Midwest Throwdown 2020
67 Carleton College Win 6-5 1424.76 Mar 8th Midwest Throwdown 2020
45 Chicago Loss 5-7 1189.39 Mar 8th Midwest Throwdown 2020
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)