#83 Autonomous (13-17)

avg: 276.44  •  sd: 69.55  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
60 Wicked Loss 2-13 122.92 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
93 Freshwater Ultimate Win 7-6 170.38 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
34 Indy Rogue** Loss 1-13 586.34 Ignored Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
90 Twisted Womxn Loss 11-12 -21.18 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
62 Dish Loss 4-13 102.78 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
102 Solstice Win 13-1 281.02 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
90 Twisted Womxn Win 11-6 650.51 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
43 Zephyr** Loss 2-14 425.29 Ignored Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
18 Starling Ultimate** Loss 0-15 1074.5 Ignored Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
39 Brooklyn Book Club** Loss 3-15 483.2 Ignored Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
62 Dish Loss 5-14 102.78 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
80 Notorious C.L.E. Win 12-9 648.34 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
55 Shiver Loss 2-14 270.65 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
96 Y'all Win 12-1 595.64 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
96 Y'all Win 14-6 595.64 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
102 Solstice Win 9-4 281.02 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
73 Incline Loss 5-10 -103.61 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
96 Y'all Win 13-8 491.8 Sep 9th 2023 Womens East Plains Sectional Championship
31 Rival** Loss 3-13 766.44 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Womens East Plains Sectional Championship
92 Sureshot Win 11-6 594.52 Sep 9th 2023 Womens East Plains Sectional Championship
80 Notorious C.L.E. Win 8-6 603.47 Sep 9th 2023 Womens East Plains Sectional Championship
102 Solstice Win 13-4 281.02 Sep 10th 2023 Womens East Plains Sectional Championship
80 Notorious C.L.E. Win 11-10 427.98 Sep 10th 2023 Womens East Plains Sectional Championship
31 Rival** Loss 3-15 766.44 Ignored Sep 10th 2023 Womens East Plains Sectional Championship
96 Y'all Loss 8-12 -445.52 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Womens Regional Championship
31 Rival** Loss 3-15 766.44 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Womens Regional Championship
62 Dish Loss 11-14 389.45 Sep 23rd 2023 Great Lakes Womens Regional Championship
12 Nemesis** Loss 1-15 1331.46 Ignored Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Womens Regional Championship
80 Notorious C.L.E. Loss 10-13 -25.17 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Womens Regional Championship
102 Solstice Win 13-8 177.18 Sep 24th 2023 Great Lakes Womens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)