#55 Michigan State (9-2)

avg: 1465.76  •  sd: 135.35  •  top 16/20: 0.3%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
128 Colorado College Win 7-6 1261 Mar 16th College Mens Centex Tier 1
47 Oklahoma Christian Win 12-8 1961.33 Mar 16th College Mens Centex Tier 1
37 Texas A&M Loss 6-13 990.94 Mar 16th College Mens Centex Tier 1
139 LSU Win 12-9 1429.97 Mar 16th College Mens Centex Tier 1
31 Middlebury Loss 7-10 1267.46 Mar 17th College Mens Centex Tier 1
195 Grinnell** Win 11-3 1446.06 Ignored Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
378 Iowa-B** Win 13-0 216.06 Ignored Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
229 Northern Iowa** Win 11-3 1315.79 Ignored Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
93 Colorado-B Win 11-7 1732.99 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
81 Iowa Win 9-8 1462.61 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
170 Minnesota-Duluth Win 10-4 1550.77 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)