#166 Villanova (15-4)

avg: 958.54  •  sd: 71.4  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
189 East Carolina Win 9-6 1280.6 Feb 24th Monument Melee
184 George Mason Loss 8-10 613.38 Feb 24th Monument Melee
206 George Washington Win 11-7 1270.2 Feb 24th Monument Melee
280 Drexel Win 15-4 1073.63 Feb 25th Monument Melee
175 Maryland-Baltimore County Win 10-6 1424.16 Feb 25th Monument Melee
208 Virginia Commonwealth Win 12-7 1305.89 Feb 25th Monument Melee
313 Dartmouth-B** Win 13-4 884.25 Ignored Mar 16th Free Tournament
331 New Jersey Tech** Win 13-5 763.75 Ignored Mar 16th Free Tournament
377 RIT-B** Win 13-0 232.37 Ignored Mar 16th Free Tournament
316 SUNY-Fredonia** Win 13-2 873.54 Ignored Mar 16th Free Tournament
352 Rensselaer Polytech Win 11-7 483.8 Mar 17th Free Tournament
130 Towson Loss 8-15 552.02 Mar 17th Free Tournament
199 Messiah Win 10-9 957.24 Mar 23rd Garden State 2024
203 West Virginia Loss 8-9 694.37 Mar 23rd Garden State 2024
198 Delaware Win 9-7 1114.01 Mar 24th Garden State 2024
198 Delaware Win 8-7 959.68 Mar 24th Garden State 2024
281 Edinboro Win 11-5 1050.84 Mar 24th Garden State 2024
197 Haverford Loss 9-10 711.18 Mar 24th Garden State 2024
152 West Chester Win 9-8 1151.57 Mar 24th Garden State 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)