#194 California-Davis (9-5)

avg: 848.06  •  sd: 59.63  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
320 Cal Poly-SLO-C Win 13-3 859.59 Jan 20th Pres Day Quals
292 California-Santa Barbara-B Win 13-5 1002.65 Jan 20th Pres Day Quals
212 San Diego State Win 11-8 1136.53 Jan 20th Pres Day Quals
164 UCLA-B Loss 9-13 553.02 Jan 21st Pres Day Quals
134 California-Irvine Loss 7-10 719.43 Jan 21st Pres Day Quals
307 Chico State Win 13-2 917.96 Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
160 Santa Clara Loss 4-9 393.03 Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
133 Loyola Marymount Win 8-7 1235.24 Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
349 Cal Poly-Humboldt** Win 13-2 627.1 Ignored Mar 9th Silicon Valley Rally 2024
202 California-B Loss 8-9 701.52 Mar 9th Silicon Valley Rally 2024
129 San Jose State Loss 8-10 863.79 Mar 9th Silicon Valley Rally 2024
349 Cal Poly-Humboldt** Win 13-1 627.1 Ignored Mar 10th Silicon Valley Rally 2024
323 California-Santa Cruz-B** Win 12-4 839.49 Ignored Mar 10th Silicon Valley Rally 2024
307 Chico State Win 13-4 917.96 Mar 10th Silicon Valley Rally 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)