#150 Navy (6-8)

avg: 1034.29  •  sd: 56.01  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
179 Missouri S&T Win 13-9 1322.67 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
137 Union (Tennessee) Loss 9-13 671.94 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
80 Lewis & Clark Loss 9-13 921.12 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
59 Whitman Loss 4-13 836.78 Mar 2nd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
257 Air Force Win 13-3 1171.36 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
242 Butler Win 13-6 1268.37 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
51 Franciscan Loss 5-13 896.28 Mar 3rd FCS D III Tune Up 2024
96 Connecticut Loss 11-12 1124.4 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
25 McGill** Loss 4-13 1174.26 Ignored Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
113 Syracuse Win 11-10 1313.84 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
278 SUNY-Stony Brook Win 11-7 964.03 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
101 Cornell Loss 9-13 806 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
154 Harvard Win 11-9 1272.39 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
113 Syracuse Loss 9-12 843.47 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)