#110 Arizona State (10-4)

avg: 1192.59  •  sd: 66.75  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
105 Mississippi State Win 10-9 1335.79 Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
87 Tennessee-Chattanooga Loss 8-9 1184.98 Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
200 Spring Hill Win 10-7 1217.9 Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
333 LSU-B** Win 10-4 751.44 Ignored Feb 24th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
220 Sam Houston Win 13-7 1300.59 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
44 Tulane Loss 8-11 1176.07 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
41 Florida Loss 7-12 1050.51 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
132 Arkansas Win 11-7 1578.75 Feb 25th Mardi Gras XXXVI college
211 Arizona Win 7-4 1268.96 Mar 30th 2024 Sinvite
292 California-Santa Barbara-B** Win 13-3 1002.65 Ignored Mar 30th 2024 Sinvite
234 Claremont Win 8-5 1156.74 Mar 30th 2024 Sinvite
202 California-B Win 13-4 1426.52 Mar 30th 2024 Sinvite
129 San Jose State Loss 6-11 579.76 Mar 31st 2024 Sinvite
227 Cal State-Long Beach Win 9-6 1140.56 Mar 31st 2024 Sinvite
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)