#84 Iowa State (10-10)

avg: 1323.81  •  sd: 74.38  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
121 John Brown Loss 4-6 640.91 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
64 Missouri Loss 6-8 1183.87 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
46 Texas Loss 3-9 1076.99 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
36 Texas-Dallas Loss 1-14 1193.5 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
92 Saint Louis Win 9-7 1551.82 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
109 Truman State Win 10-7 1514.18 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
79 Kansas Win 7-6 1480.6 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
51 Macalester Loss 4-9 1008.92 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
132 Marquette Win 8-5 1372.38 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
95 Iowa Loss 8-9 1127.41 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
64 Missouri Win 7-5 1812.5 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
37 Washington University Loss 6-7 1643.65 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
82 Northwestern Loss 5-10 758.56 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
96 Chicago Win 7-5 1579.15 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
42 Purdue Loss 2-11 1100.79 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
77 Michigan Tech Win 7-6 1495.43 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
195 Minnesota-B** Win 8-3 870.18 Ignored Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
100 Davenport Win 8-4 1758.78 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
51 Macalester Loss 4-10 1008.92 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
79 Kansas Win 9-7 1634.94 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)