#192 Syracuse (5-8)

avg: 309.87  •  sd: 79.23  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
172 Skidmore Loss 4-8 -15.74 Feb 24th Bring The Huckus 2024
212 Dickinson Win 8-4 640.5 Feb 24th Bring The Huckus 2024
114 West Chester** Loss 1-11 460.72 Ignored Feb 24th Bring The Huckus 2024
168 Swarthmore Loss 6-7 448.52 Feb 24th Bring The Huckus 2024
172 Skidmore Loss 4-8 -15.74 Feb 25th Bring The Huckus 2024
212 Dickinson Win 8-4 640.5 Feb 25th Bring The Huckus 2024
98 Rochester** Loss 2-13 617.18 Ignored Feb 25th Bring The Huckus 2024
146 RIT Loss 2-11 243.66 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2024
223 SUNY-Albany** Win 12-1 239.49 Ignored Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2024
203 SUNY-Buffalo Win 8-5 631.46 Mar 30th Northeast Classic 2024
175 Bowdoin Loss 3-8 -81.59 Mar 31st Northeast Classic 2024
209 Vermont-C Win 7-3 699.64 Mar 31st Northeast Classic 2024
163 Temple Loss 1-13 34.57 Mar 31st Northeast Classic 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)