#109 Ascension (8-7)

avg: 1168.78  •  sd: 49.99  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
154 Odyssey Win 11-7 1361.17 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
133 BAG Win 10-9 1159.3 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
169 MBTA Win 13-6 1430.61 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
94 Magma Bears Loss 9-12 945.86 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
154 Odyssey Win 14-10 1292.98 Aug 5th Vacationland
71 Big Wrench Loss 9-15 879.53 Aug 5th Vacationland
231 Madhouse Win 10-5 997.11 Aug 5th Vacationland
32 Scoop Loss 11-15 1294.41 Aug 6th Vacationland
137 Expendables Win 12-11 1123.4 Aug 6th Vacationland
79 Red Tide Win 13-12 1496.93 Aug 6th Vacationland
51 TireBizFriz Loss 5-13 952.5 Sep 9th 2023 Mens West New England Sectional Championship
23 Mephisto Loss 6-13 1182.97 Sep 9th 2023 Mens West New England Sectional Championship
- You Need to Calm Down Win 13-6 1168.77 Sep 9th 2023 Mens West New England Sectional Championship
23 Mephisto Loss 6-13 1182.97 Sep 10th 2023 Mens West New England Sectional Championship
26 Sprout Loss 6-13 1145.77 Sep 10th 2023 Mens West New England Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)