#79 Red Tide (12-10)

avg: 1371.93  •  sd: 76.36  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
158 Alibi Win 15-2 1487.94 Jul 8th AntlerLock
230 Bartle Boys** Win 15-4 1030.92 Ignored Jul 8th AntlerLock
51 TireBizFriz Win 12-8 1993.66 Jul 8th AntlerLock
154 Odyssey Win 15-4 1494.28 Jul 8th AntlerLock
189 Dirty Laundry Win 11-10 873.17 Jul 9th AntlerLock
226 Buffalo Frostbite** Win 15-3 1086.54 Ignored Jul 9th AntlerLock
24 Blueprint Win 12-9 2109.88 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
92 Club M - Manic Loss 9-10 1166.42 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
26 Sprout Loss 9-12 1400.4 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
82 Lantern Loss 9-10 1224.71 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
71 Big Wrench Loss 11-14 1081.67 Aug 5th Vacationland
92 Club M - Manic Win 15-10 1745.03 Aug 5th Vacationland
109 Ascension Loss 12-13 1043.78 Aug 6th Vacationland
62 Shade Loss 13-15 1235.46 Aug 6th Vacationland
92 Club M - Manic Win 13-11 1520.26 Aug 6th Vacationland
32 Scoop Loss 12-13 1550.57 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East New England Sectional Championship
71 Big Wrench Win 13-9 1813.57 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East New England Sectional Championship
169 MBTA Win 15-4 1430.61 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East New England Sectional Championship
82 Lantern Win 13-8 1845.87 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East New England Sectional Championship
71 Big Wrench Loss 7-12 874.5 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East New England Sectional Championship
82 Lantern Loss 9-12 1004.35 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East New England Sectional Championship
154 Odyssey Loss 14-15 769.28 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East New England Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)