#212 Chalice (3-10)

avg: 444.91  •  sd: 88.93  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
241 PanIC Win 15-4 741.8 Jun 25th Spirit of the Plains
203 Locomotion Loss 9-12 168.19 Jun 25th Spirit of the Plains
167 Indiana Pterodactyl Attack Loss 4-13 147.33 Jul 22nd Corny Classic II
209 Mastodon Loss 11-13 234.52 Jul 22nd Corny Classic II
116 Jabba Loss 7-13 434.66 Jul 22nd Corny Classic II
241 PanIC Win 12-9 487.16 Jul 23rd Corny Classic II
165 Prion Loss 13-14 636.72 Jul 23rd Corny Classic II
92 Three Rivers Ultimate Club** Loss 6-15 485.54 Ignored Jul 23rd Corny Classic II
225 Arms Race Loss 10-13 -5.93 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
31 Kansas City United Loss 8-15 1030.35 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
203 Locomotion Win 13-11 742.39 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
225 Arms Race Loss 12-13 197.21 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
31 Kansas City United** Loss 4-15 995.15 Ignored Sep 10th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)