#241 PanIC (3-22)

avg: 141.8  •  sd: 63.61  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
212 Chalice Loss 4-15 -155.09 Jun 25th Spirit of the Plains
203 Locomotion Loss 8-13 17.39 Jun 25th Spirit of the Plains
115 Queen City Gambit Loss 8-13 501.65 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
210 ELevate Loss 7-13 -105.15 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
128 Mousetrap** Loss 4-13 314.95 Ignored Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
179 Frostbite Loss 9-11 396.95 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
176 The Force Loss 10-13 323.73 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
231 POW! Loss 7-12 -260.85 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
131 Stackcats Loss 6-13 290.78 Jul 22nd Corny Classic II
92 Three Rivers Ultimate Club Loss 9-13 666.97 Jul 22nd Corny Classic II
165 Prion** Loss 5-13 161.72 Ignored Jul 22nd Corny Classic II
116 Jabba** Loss 1-15 392.19 Ignored Jul 23rd Corny Classic II
209 Mastodon Loss 10-11 338.36 Jul 23rd Corny Classic II
212 Chalice Loss 9-12 99.54 Jul 23rd Corny Classic II
236 Mad City Vibes Win 11-9 482.23 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
170 Boomtown Pandas Loss 7-10 337.37 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
225 Arms Race Win 10-7 711.88 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
211 Lake Superior Disc Loss 6-10 -49.37 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
236 Mad City Vibes Loss 7-11 -233.87 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
244 Underdogs Win 12-11 209.14 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
225 Arms Race Loss 9-13 -96.35 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
35 Impact** Loss 1-15 917.09 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
203 Locomotion Loss 8-14 -22.48 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
225 Arms Race Loss 6-13 -277.79 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
203 Locomotion Loss 9-15 -1.93 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed West Plains Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)