#103 Bird (18-8)

avg: 1037.54  •  sd: 60.59  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
200 Pixel Win 13-9 943.35 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
57 Steamboat Win 13-11 1568.24 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
236 Mad City Vibes** Win 13-4 833.02 Ignored Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
88 Spectre Win 11-10 1233.62 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
105 Bandwagon Win 12-11 1153.24 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
40 UNION Loss 9-12 1146.49 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
159 Pandamonium Win 11-7 1252.74 Jul 15th Cheep Thrills 2023
211 Lake Superior Disc Win 13-8 942.94 Jul 15th Cheep Thrills 2023
235 Ca$h Cow$ Win 12-6 815.85 Jul 15th Cheep Thrills 2023
244 Underdogs Win 10-8 346.81 Jul 15th Cheep Thrills 2023
2 Drag'n Thrust** Loss 5-13 1472.18 Ignored Jul 16th Cheep Thrills 2023
182 Melt Loss 11-12 495.06 Jul 16th Cheep Thrills 2023
189 Great Minnesota Get Together Win 13-3 1166.89 Jul 16th Cheep Thrills 2023
85 Risky Business Loss 8-11 760.86 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
182 Melt Win 10-6 1116.22 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
54 No Touching! Loss 6-13 744.08 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
116 Jabba Win 13-6 1592.19 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
85 Risky Business Loss 7-14 543.58 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
60 Minnesota Star Power Win 12-11 1420.76 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
54 No Touching! Loss 7-12 823.57 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
145 Madison United Mixed Ultimate Win 10-9 949.22 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
189 Great Minnesota Get Together Win 13-6 1166.89 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
236 Mad City Vibes** Win 13-4 833.02 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
86 Mad Udderburn Win 12-10 1359.26 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
109 Pushovers Win 13-9 1444.08 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
73 Northern Comfort Loss 10-15 740.6 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)