#194 Thunderpants the Magic Dragon (6-7)

avg: 556.64  •  sd: 99.73  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
57 Steamboat** Loss 2-13 739.4 Ignored Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
184 Crucible Loss 6-9 181.85 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
150 Toast! Loss 2-13 203.62 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
115 Queen City Gambit Loss 5-10 423.91 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
200 Pixel Win 8-4 1089.59 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
231 POW! Win 12-1 859.66 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
186 2Fly2Furious Win 8-5 1035.22 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
231 POW! Loss 9-10 134.66 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East Plains Sectional Championship
57 Steamboat** Loss 6-15 739.4 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East Plains Sectional Championship
246 Lightning Win 15-7 645.5 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East Plains Sectional Championship
200 Pixel Win 13-10 852.93 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed East Plains Sectional Championship
200 Pixel Win 15-11 905.95 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed East Plains Sectional Championship
186 2Fly2Furious Loss 5-15 -18.38 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed East Plains Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)