#230 Birds of Paradise (4-19)

avg: 265.05  •  sd: 71.71  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
215 Quails Win 9-8 544.03 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
202 Air Throwmads Loss 2-12 -84.37 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
181 VU Win 8-6 931.15 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
173 Nebula Loss 5-10 107.78 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
215 Quails Loss 3-15 -180.97 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
224 Moonlight Ultimate Loss 8-10 64.99 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
63 Pegasus** Loss 5-13 659.42 Ignored Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
39 Lotus** Loss 3-15 895.04 Ignored Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
152 Family Style Loss 7-9 516.31 Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
169 Octonauts Loss 10-11 606.99 Jul 16th TCT Select Flight West 2023
58 Lights Out** Loss 2-15 711.04 Ignored Jul 16th TCT Select Flight West 2023
161 DR Loss 2-11 184.62 Aug 12th Flower Power 2023
161 DR Loss 8-12 343.46 Aug 12th Flower Power 2023
138 Firefly Loss 5-13 253.69 Aug 12th Flower Power 2023
37 LIT Ultimate** Loss 4-13 909.2 Ignored Aug 12th Flower Power 2023
169 Octonauts Loss 6-13 131.99 Aug 13th Flower Power 2023
202 Air Throwmads Loss 8-11 150.02 Aug 13th Flower Power 2023
160 Spoiler Alert Loss 6-10 289.53 Aug 13th Flower Power 2023
113 Shipwreck** Loss 2-13 402.23 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed So Cal Sectional Championship
41 California Burrito** Loss 2-13 888.22 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed So Cal Sectional Championship
- Altitude [B] Win 9-2 331.65 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed So Cal Sectional Championship
139 Karma Loss 5-10 278.07 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed So Cal Sectional Championship
247 Erosion Win 6-5 160.95 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed So Cal Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)