#37 LIT Ultimate (22-9)

avg: 1509.2  •  sd: 60.05  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
202 Air Throwmads** Win 15-2 1115.63 Ignored Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
181 VU** Win 15-3 1230.66 Ignored Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
94 Mango Win 15-9 1592.66 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
49 Donuts Win 13-11 1625.36 Jun 11th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
36 BW Ultimate Win 13-7 2068.75 Jun 11th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
39 Lotus Loss 11-12 1370.04 Jun 11th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2023
49 Donuts Win 10-7 1786.18 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
26 Sunshine Loss 6-9 1228.85 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
90 Hive Win 12-2 1688.37 Jul 8th Revolution 2023
70 American Barbecue Win 14-5 1814.93 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
36 BW Ultimate Loss 9-10 1386.22 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
33 Tower Loss 8-10 1285.71 Jul 9th Revolution 2023
247 Erosion** Win 13-2 635.95 Ignored Aug 12th Flower Power 2023
230 Birds of Paradise** Win 13-4 865.05 Ignored Aug 12th Flower Power 2023
138 Firefly** Win 13-4 1453.69 Ignored Aug 12th Flower Power 2023
224 Moonlight Ultimate** Win 13-1 927.66 Ignored Aug 12th Flower Power 2023
67 Robot Win 11-9 1488.2 Aug 13th Flower Power 2023
121 Party Wave Win 13-10 1296.03 Aug 13th Flower Power 2023
80 Flagstaff Ultimate Win 12-9 1488.36 Aug 13th Flower Power 2023
202 Air Throwmads** Win 13-4 1115.63 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
26 Sunshine Loss 12-13 1522.42 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
138 Firefly** Win 13-4 1453.69 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
51 Classy Win 12-9 1729.17 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
49 Donuts Loss 13-14 1271.52 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
70 American Barbecue Win 11-7 1681.83 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
36 BW Ultimate Loss 11-13 1282.38 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Nor Cal Sectional Championship
67 Robot Win 15-9 1754.47 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
70 American Barbecue Win 10-8 1477.6 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
36 BW Ultimate Loss 8-9 1386.22 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
41 California Burrito Loss 6-15 888.22 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
49 Donuts Win 15-9 1912 Sep 24th 2023 Southwest Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)