#229 Night Cap (2-14)

avg: 294.9  •  sd: 82.23  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
240 SkyLab Win 13-7 699.92 Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
125 Garage Sale Loss 6-13 333.16 Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
172 Choco Ghost House Loss 7-10 301.14 Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
100 Igneous Ultimate** Loss 2-13 445.47 Ignored Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
70 American Barbecue** Loss 4-10 614.93 Ignored Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
118 Stump** Loss 4-13 386.08 Ignored Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
100 Igneous Ultimate Loss 10-13 717.33 Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
192 Drip Loss 6-13 -38.66 Aug 13th Kleinman Eruption 2023
240 SkyLab Loss 9-13 -276.18 Aug 13th Kleinman Eruption 2023
205 Surge Loss 8-12 51.81 Aug 13th Kleinman Eruption 2023
23 Oregon Scorch** Loss 2-13 1076.76 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
118 Stump Loss 9-12 640.71 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
172 Choco Ghost House Loss 7-12 170.29 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
173 Nebula Loss 10-13 353.53 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
240 SkyLab Win 8-7 267.38 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
125 Garage Sale Loss 7-13 375.63 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)