#100 Igneous Ultimate (16-13)

avg: 1045.47  •  sd: 47.13  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
240 SkyLab** Win 13-2 742.38 Ignored Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
125 Garage Sale Win 11-7 1400.06 Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
173 Nebula Win 13-5 1281.68 Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
229 Night Cap** Win 13-2 894.9 Ignored Jun 24th Buried In Disc Satisfaction BIDS
70 American Barbecue Loss 8-11 849.32 Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
118 Stump Win 12-11 1111.08 Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
229 Night Cap Win 13-10 623.04 Aug 12th Kleinman Eruption 2023
83 Seattle Soft Serve Loss 6-8 831.52 Aug 13th Kleinman Eruption 2023
77 Bullet Train Loss 10-11 1037.69 Aug 13th Kleinman Eruption 2023
173 Nebula Win 12-7 1202.19 Aug 13th Kleinman Eruption 2023
74 Sego Loss 7-10 801.68 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
102 Space Ghosts Loss 9-10 913.16 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
139 Karma Win 13-8 1348.12 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
53 Quick Draw Loss 8-10 1087.89 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
74 Sego Win 10-9 1316.34 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
75 Cutthroat Loss 7-11 720.06 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
192 Drip Win 13-6 1161.34 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
240 SkyLab** Win 13-4 742.38 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
125 Garage Sale Win 12-10 1171.29 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
90 Hive Loss 7-13 530.84 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
118 Stump Win 14-12 1207.04 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
173 Nebula Win 15-8 1246.49 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
90 Hive Loss 8-15 523.56 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Oregon Sectional Championship
53 Quick Draw Loss 13-15 1136.38 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
11 Seattle Mixtape** Loss 6-15 1274.03 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
127 Squid Inc. Win 12-10 1154.05 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
72 Grit City Win 15-13 1409.55 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
34 Spoke Loss 9-15 1028.85 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
58 Lights Out Loss 10-12 1072.92 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)