#54 Stellar (13-15)

avg: 876.94  •  sd: 58.43  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
60 Wicked Win 11-8 1088.53 Jun 24th Spirit of the Plains
97 Minnesota Superior A** Win 10-4 576.66 Ignored Jun 24th Spirit of the Plains
90 Twisted Womxn Win 13-7 661.35 Jun 24th Spirit of the Plains
29 Pop Loss 2-13 802.13 Jun 24th Spirit of the Plains
66 Banshee Loss 7-8 500.96 Jun 25th Spirit of the Plains
81 Stormborn Win 9-4 891.05 Jun 25th Spirit of the Plains
41 Heist Loss 4-13 441.1 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
76 Medusa Win 11-8 807.83 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
92 Sureshot** Win 13-5 647.83 Ignored Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
81 Stormborn Win 13-8 787.21 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
60 Wicked Loss 9-13 304.35 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
34 Indy Rogue Loss 7-13 628.81 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
102 Solstice** Win 13-1 281.02 Ignored Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
43 Zephyr Win 7-5 1353.43 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
66 Banshee Win 12-5 1225.96 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
18 Starling Ultimate** Loss 5-13 1074.5 Ignored Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
39 Brooklyn Book Club Loss 7-12 562.69 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
41 Heist Loss 10-12 802.98 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
22 Siege** Loss 6-15 941.48 Ignored Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
23 Flight** Loss 6-14 939.4 Ignored Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
17 Ozone** Loss 6-15 1086.4 Ignored Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
9 Schwa** Loss 2-15 1501.71 Ignored Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
25 Colorado Small Batch Loss 7-9 1180.13 Aug 20th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
38 FAB Loss 7-10 729.6 Aug 20th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
30 Tabby Rosa Loss 7-11 917.34 Aug 20th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2023
60 Wicked Win 15-6 1322.92 Sep 9th 2023 Womens West Plains Sectional Championship
66 Banshee Win 15-9 1141.44 Sep 9th 2023 Womens West Plains Sectional Championship
90 Twisted Womxn** Win 15-5 703.82 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Womens West Plains Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)