#255 St John's (Minnesota) (7-6)

avg: 584.96  •  sd: 54.82  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
78 Carleton College-CHOP** Loss 1-13 748.94 Ignored Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
283 Knox Win 11-10 555.89 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
48 Missouri** Loss 3-13 914.77 Ignored Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
161 Truman State Loss 5-10 418.79 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
370 Northwestern-B Win 9-6 213.27 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
176 Saint Louis Loss 6-9 507.67 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
317 Washington University-B Win 9-6 688.78 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
265 Eastern Michigan Loss 7-8 408.93 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
370 Northwestern-B** Win 13-0 394.7 Ignored Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
124 Macalester Loss 6-13 546.58 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
322 Luther Win 12-7 768.57 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
337 St Thomas Win 13-6 716.69 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
322 Luther Win 13-4 848.06 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)