#161 Truman State (8-11)

avg: 992.69  •  sd: 73.29  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
192 Harding Win 13-4 1451.11 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
314 Kansas-B** Win 13-2 882.94 Ignored Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
176 Saint Louis Loss 6-9 507.67 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
192 Harding Win 15-6 1451.11 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
179 Missouri S&T Win 15-5 1504.1 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
145 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Loss 9-10 935.42 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
78 Carleton College-CHOP Loss 3-11 748.94 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
283 Knox Win 11-7 897.79 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
48 Missouri Loss 6-10 1018.61 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
255 St John's (Minnesota) Win 10-5 1158.86 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2024
195 Grinnell Win 9-6 1264.63 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
81 Iowa Loss 6-9 919.04 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
124 Macalester Loss 6-8 846.09 Mar 3rd Midwest Throwdown 2024
188 John Brown Win 12-5 1462.39 Mar 23rd Free State Classic
135 Kansas Loss 9-11 858.03 Mar 23rd Free State Classic
176 Saint Louis Loss 7-11 459.35 Mar 23rd Free State Classic
49 St Olaf Loss 7-9 1223.83 Mar 23rd Free State Classic
179 Missouri S&T Loss 8-9 779.1 Mar 24th Free State Classic
176 Saint Louis Loss 8-11 560.63 Mar 24th Free State Classic
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)