#145 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville (12-6)

avg: 1060.42  •  sd: 64  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
188 John Brown Win 11-3 1462.39 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
108 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Loss 8-9 1074.7 Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
317 Washington University-B** Win 13-2 870.22 Ignored Feb 17th Dust Bowl 2024
161 Truman State Win 10-9 1117.69 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
218 Texas-Dallas Loss 9-13 339.29 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
108 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Loss 8-12 758.54 Feb 18th Dust Bowl 2024
309 DePaul** Win 13-4 913.87 Ignored Mar 16th Grand Rapids College Invite
294 Toledo Win 11-9 636.76 Mar 16th Grand Rapids College Invite
259 Wisconsin-B Win 12-7 1080.94 Mar 16th Grand Rapids College Invite
309 DePaul** Win 10-4 913.87 Ignored Mar 17th Grand Rapids College Invite
155 Grace Loss 7-8 897.24 Mar 17th Grand Rapids College Invite
122 Oberlin Win 10-9 1277.55 Mar 17th Grand Rapids College Invite
260 Illinois State Win 12-5 1158.62 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
140 Minnesota-B Win 13-10 1406.18 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
322 Luther** Win 13-4 848.06 Ignored Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2024
93 Colorado-B Loss 7-8 1141.1 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
102 Davenport Loss 10-11 1092.27 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
170 Minnesota-Duluth Win 8-6 1251.26 Mar 31st Old Capitol Open 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)