#48 Carleton College-Eclipse (15-2)

avg: 1643.69  •  sd: 114.92  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
130 Cal Poly-SLO-B** Win 13-4 1525.76 Ignored Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
69 California-San Diego-B Win 7-6 1547.37 Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
124 Claremont** Win 13-3 1569.82 Ignored Feb 3rd Stanford Open 2024
45 Portland Loss 5-8 1231.31 Feb 10th DIII Grand Prix
60 Colorado College Loss 8-10 1255.76 Feb 10th DIII Grand Prix
106 Puget Sound Win 12-4 1751.16 Feb 10th DIII Grand Prix
91 Lewis & Clark Win 11-7 1751.58 Feb 10th DIII Grand Prix
44 Whitman Win 10-7 2082 Feb 11th DIII Grand Prix
139 Oregon State** Win 10-2 1494.04 Ignored Feb 11th DIII Grand Prix
60 Colorado College Win 6-5 1643.43 Feb 11th DIII Grand Prix
206 Georgia Southern** Win 13-1 727.32 Ignored Mar 16th Southerns 2024
221 Florida-B** Win 13-0 347.04 Ignored Mar 16th Southerns 2024
133 Charleston** Win 13-5 1516.93 Ignored Mar 16th Southerns 2024
196 North Carolina-Wilmington** Win 13-2 866.07 Ignored Mar 16th Southerns 2024
189 Georgia-B** Win 15-0 993.46 Ignored Mar 17th Southerns 2024
133 Charleston** Win 15-6 1516.93 Ignored Mar 17th Southerns 2024
102 East Carolina Win 15-4 1772.52 Mar 17th Southerns 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)