#156 NOMAD (11-9)

avg: 889.95  •  sd: 54.28  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
17 STL Lounar** Loss 5-13 1309.35 Ignored Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
45 Kenji's BBB** Loss 5-13 984.66 Ignored Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
117 Chimney Loss 11-13 890.73 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
90 HouSE Loss 10-13 968.4 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
191 DCVIII Win 11-10 860.58 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
201 Trident III Win 12-8 1117.64 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
192 Minnesota Superior B Win 13-7 1285.79 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
241 Middleton High School** Win 13-5 849.82 Ignored Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
127 Nomads Loss 11-12 926.02 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
159 Choice City Hops Loss 10-13 556.5 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
219 THE BODY Win 11-9 780.8 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
148 Minnesota Superior A Loss 8-15 364.68 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
241 Middleton High School Win 15-12 550.31 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
170 Rubicon Rapids Win 13-12 955.18 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
175 Dinkytown Doughboys Win 13-9 1238.76 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
19 Sub Zero** Loss 2-13 1265.58 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
219 THE BODY Win 13-6 1131.59 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
170 Rubicon Rapids Win 15-14 955.18 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
127 Nomads Loss 10-15 597.42 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
191 DCVIII Win 15-12 1036.07 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)