#159 Choice City Hops (11-16)

avg: 884.65  •  sd: 46.25  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
184 False Summit Win 15-4 1382.88 Jun 24th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
54 ISO Atmo** Loss 6-15 919.35 Ignored Jun 24th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
171 Sonoran Dog Win 11-7 1295.1 Jun 24th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
78 Drought Loss 10-15 920.5 Jun 25th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
57 Fungi Loss 7-12 972.03 Jun 25th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
128 PowderHogs Loss 7-10 658.83 Jun 25th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
98 Riverside Loss 7-12 758.07 Jul 22nd Riverside Classic 2023
229 Riverside Messengers-B Win 13-6 1051.74 Jul 22nd Riverside Classic 2023
105 Dreadnought Loss 8-9 1062.83 Jul 22nd Riverside Classic 2023
97 Texas Duffy Loss 8-9 1157.15 Jul 22nd Riverside Classic 2023
165 Firefly TX Win 13-12 983.17 Jul 23rd Riverside Classic 2023
225 Forge Win 15-11 869.4 Jul 23rd Riverside Classic 2023
149 Rawhide Win 15-14 1052.02 Jul 23rd Riverside Classic 2023
143 STL Moonar Loss 10-13 638.63 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
219 THE BODY Win 13-12 656.59 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
156 NOMAD Win 13-10 1218.1 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
131 NOx Loss 9-13 620.05 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
170 Rubicon Rapids Loss 10-15 376.58 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
147 DINGWOP Loss 6-9 521.55 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
106 MKE Loss 4-15 582.41 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
57 Fungi Loss 8-13 996.38 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
54 ISO Atmo** Loss 5-13 919.35 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
174 Colorado Cutthroat: Youth Club U-20 Boys Win 13-11 1051.49 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
151 Bonafide Scrubs Loss 11-13 692.37 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
54 ISO Atmo Loss 9-15 1003.87 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
- YCC U20 Developmental Team Win 13-8 884.59 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
151 Bonafide Scrubs Win 14-13 1046.21 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)