#179 Timber (8-10)

avg: 810.55  •  sd: 77.6  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
98 Riverside Loss 1-13 678.58 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
131 NOx Loss 7-13 481.08 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
63 I-69** Loss 4-13 849.32 Ignored Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
201 Trident III Win 13-11 905.33 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
135 Trident II Win 13-11 1252.51 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
45 Kenji's BBB Loss 7-13 1027.13 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
131 NOx Loss 5-13 438.61 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
204 Loaded Panda Win 13-12 767.29 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
191 DCVIII Loss 7-12 215.07 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
106 MKE Loss 5-13 582.41 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
204 Loaded Panda Win 12-11 767.29 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
192 Minnesota Superior B Win 15-11 1109.42 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
191 DCVIII Win 13-9 1154.15 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
90 HouSE Loss 8-15 731.74 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
106 MKE Loss 10-12 944.29 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
194 UFO Win 13-10 1044.29 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
147 DINGWOP Loss 12-15 639.63 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
236 Spin Doctors Win 15-7 970.91 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)