#61 Penn State (8-10)

avg: 1503.49  •  sd: 75.57  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
39 Virginia Loss 8-9 1613.89 Jan 27th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
88 Virginia Tech Win 9-4 1897.26 Jan 27th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
57 William & Mary Win 9-8 1669.4 Jan 27th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
59 Georgetown Win 7-3 2119.65 Jan 28th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
39 Virginia Loss 5-7 1410.75 Jan 28th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
57 William & Mary Loss 4-9 944.4 Jan 28th Winta Binta Vinta 2024
38 South Carolina Loss 7-13 1205.59 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
74 Harvard Win 7-6 1507.6 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
112 Maryland Win 11-5 1667.34 Feb 24th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
31 Brown Loss 3-11 1274.19 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
70 James Madison Win 9-8 1544.57 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
42 Purdue Win 7-5 2028.93 Feb 25th Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2 2024
31 Brown Loss 7-9 1594.85 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
7 Tufts** Loss 2-15 1920.18 Ignored Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
39 Virginia Loss 5-13 1138.89 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
52 Yale Loss 6-8 1293.56 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2024
75 Columbia Win 8-5 1828.51 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
52 Yale Loss 6-8 1293.56 Mar 31st East Coast Invite 2024
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)