#60 Switchback (13-15)

avg: 1475.77  •  sd: 47.21  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
11 Furious George Loss 9-12 1712.07 Jun 24th Summer Solstice 2023
14 Sockeye Loss 3-13 1399.88 Jun 24th Summer Solstice 2023
20 Zyzzyva Loss 10-12 1622.09 Jun 24th Summer Solstice 2023
10 Rhino Slam!** Loss 5-13 1485.8 Ignored Jun 25th Summer Solstice 2023
87 Ghost Train Win 13-8 1805.57 Jun 25th Summer Solstice 2023
58 Skipjack Win 13-11 1719.55 Jun 25th Summer Solstice 2023
111 Regiment Win 11-10 1285.71 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
32 Scoop Loss 11-13 1446.73 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
71 Big Wrench Loss 8-11 1029.4 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
16 General Strike Loss 8-11 1571 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
53 Sundance Kids Loss 11-12 1399.03 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
128 PowderHogs Win 10-7 1438.16 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
57 Fungi Loss 9-10 1367.54 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
78 Drought Win 13-9 1792.67 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
128 PowderHogs Win 13-8 1544.65 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
113 Utah Hatu Win 13-6 1757.14 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
193 ONI** Win 15-4 1324.7 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens Washington Sectional Championship
87 Ghost Train Win 15-8 1874.21 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Washington Sectional Championship
59 Jen City Executives Loss 11-15 1106.6 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Washington Sectional Championship
112 Heartbreak Win 15-11 1538.45 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Washington Sectional Championship
67 Mystery Gang Win 14-12 1646.87 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Washington Sectional Championship
59 Jen City Executives Loss 7-13 930.23 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Washington Sectional Championship
10 Rhino Slam! Loss 7-15 1485.8 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mens Regional Championship
81 Surf Loss 10-13 1021.83 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mens Regional Championship
59 Jen City Executives Win 13-9 1906.33 Sep 23rd 2023 Northwest Mens Regional Championship
81 Surf Win 14-12 1570.93 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mens Regional Championship
14 Sockeye Loss 10-15 1546.27 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mens Regional Championship
99 SOUF Loss 13-14 1130.01 Sep 24th 2023 Northwest Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)