#78 Drought (15-14)

avg: 1374.11  •  sd: 54.17  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
131 NOx Win 15-3 1638.61 Jun 24th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
178 COSmic U-20 Boys Win 15-5 1412.24 Jun 24th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
54 ISO Atmo Loss 9-13 1100.78 Jun 24th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
41 Johnny Walker Loss 10-15 1158.14 Jun 25th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
49 Shrimp Loss 9-14 1081.36 Jun 25th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
159 Choice City Hops Win 15-10 1338.25 Jun 25th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
66 OC Crows Win 15-10 1890.49 Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
11 Furious George Loss 8-15 1492.63 Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
99 SOUF Loss 12-13 1130.01 Jul 15th TCT Select Flight West 2023
176 Battery Win 15-4 1417.3 Jul 16th TCT Select Flight West 2023
76 Haymaker Loss 12-13 1252.16 Jul 16th TCT Select Flight West 2023
53 Sundance Kids Loss 10-13 1195.89 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
66 OC Crows Loss 7-9 1157.55 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
128 PowderHogs Win 13-8 1544.65 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
68 Brawl Win 13-4 2018.55 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
145 Green River Swordfish Win 13-6 1564.26 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
60 Switchback Loss 9-13 1057.21 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
58 Skipjack Win 13-12 1615.71 Sep 9th 2023 Mens So Cal Sectional Championship
242 Monsoon** Win 13-1 847.9 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens So Cal Sectional Championship
196 Casino Ultimate** Win 13-3 1308.12 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens So Cal Sectional Championship
171 Sonoran Dog Win 13-4 1428.2 Sep 9th 2023 Mens So Cal Sectional Championship
74 Hazard Win 15-9 1898.93 Sep 10th 2023 Mens So Cal Sectional Championship
58 Skipjack Win 10-8 1753.37 Sep 10th 2023 Mens So Cal Sectional Championship
140 Mavericks Loss 11-12 848.6 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
58 Skipjack Loss 11-14 1177.37 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
104 Offshore Win 10-9 1317.17 Sep 23rd 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
20 Zyzzyva Loss 9-15 1344.73 Sep 24th 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
74 Hazard Loss 10-12 1145.33 Sep 24th 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
70 OAT Loss 12-14 1178.51 Sep 24th 2023 Southwest Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)