#118 Raptor (16-10)

avg: 1111.59  •  sd: 52.37  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
146 Ronin Loss 9-10 826.5 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
116 Atlanta Arson Loss 3-11 543.89 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
124 Battleship Loss 9-11 811.71 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
207 Villains Win 11-3 1199.94 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
134 Dyno Win 10-9 1151.16 Jun 25th Huntsville Huckfest
129 Foxtrot Win 11-7 1509.79 Jun 25th Huntsville Huckfest
150 Nashville Mudcats Win 11-9 1175.4 Jun 25th Huntsville Huckfest
30 Delirium Loss 5-13 1078.68 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
42 UpRoar Loss 8-13 1109.16 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
85 Space Cowboys Win 12-11 1437.3 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
120 El Niño Loss 9-10 966.7 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
138 Queen City Kings Win 8-7 1120.15 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
85 Space Cowboys Loss 10-13 984.16 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
120 El Niño Win 10-9 1216.7 Aug 5th Swan Boat 2023
217 Psychedelic Win 15-3 1132.96 Aug 5th Swan Boat 2023
42 UpRoar Loss 6-12 1026.01 Aug 5th Swan Boat 2023
132 Vicious Cycle Win 12-8 1478.87 Aug 5th Swan Boat 2023
114 Bloom Win 11-7 1616.2 Aug 6th Swan Boat 2023
213 Stag Win 13-7 1115.99 Aug 6th Swan Boat 2023
120 El Niño Loss 8-12 650.55 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
217 Psychedelic Win 13-6 1132.96 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
132 Vicious Cycle Win 11-10 1162.72 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
247 Bloomin' Reptars** Win 15-5 755.4 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
120 El Niño Win 11-9 1340.91 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
114 Bloom Loss 7-11 682.42 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
132 Vicious Cycle Win 12-10 1275.84 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)