#42 UpRoar (19-4)

avg: 1605.32  •  sd: 66.3  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
118 Raptor Win 13-8 1607.75 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
85 Space Cowboys Win 12-9 1657.67 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
30 Delirium Win 11-8 2044.29 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
37 Alliance Win 12-10 1865.5 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
35 baNC Win 13-12 1769.34 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
64 Hooch Win 13-8 1944.73 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
114 Bloom Win 13-6 1749.31 Aug 5th Swan Boat 2023
118 Raptor Win 12-6 1690.9 Aug 5th Swan Boat 2023
213 Stag** Win 15-1 1158.46 Ignored Aug 5th Swan Boat 2023
120 El Niño Win 12-8 1532.86 Aug 6th Swan Boat 2023
217 Psychedelic** Win 15-1 1132.96 Ignored Aug 6th Swan Boat 2023
132 Vicious Cycle Win 12-6 1617.03 Aug 6th Swan Boat 2023
114 Bloom Win 13-9 1567.88 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
213 Stag** Win 13-3 1158.46 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
247 Bloomin' Reptars** Win 13-2 755.4 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
132 Vicious Cycle Win 15-4 1637.72 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
114 Bloom Win 12-9 1494.68 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Florida Sectional Championship
6 Ring of Fire Loss 1-13 1580.66 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
114 Bloom Win 13-4 1749.31 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
61 Lost Boys Win 11-8 1831.54 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
30 Delirium Loss 9-14 1204.81 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
35 baNC Loss 12-14 1423.38 Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
28 Tanasi Loss 5-15 1132.45 Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)