#30 Delirium (19-10)

avg: 1678.68  •  sd: 50.7  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
118 Raptor Win 13-5 1711.59 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
42 UpRoar Loss 8-11 1239.71 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
85 Space Cowboys Win 13-5 1912.3 Jul 8th Club Terminus 2023
37 Alliance Loss 10-13 1299.23 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
61 Lost Boys Win 11-10 1590.93 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
56 Little Red Wagon Win 13-8 1994.07 Jul 9th Club Terminus 2023
48 Alamode Win 14-13 1681.94 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
75 Flying Dutchmen Win 11-7 1844.43 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
15 GOAT Loss 5-13 1372.27 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
57 Fungi Win 13-12 1617.54 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
61 Lost Boys Win 11-9 1715.14 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
21 Phoenix Loss 13-14 1734.25 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
144 Music City Mafia** Win 15-5 1565.1 Ignored Aug 12th HoDown Showdown 2023
138 Queen City Kings Win 15-8 1559.96 Aug 12th HoDown Showdown 2023
85 Space Cowboys Win 15-6 1912.3 Aug 12th HoDown Showdown 2023
35 baNC Loss 14-15 1519.34 Aug 13th HoDown Showdown 2023
61 Lost Boys Win 15-10 1919.54 Aug 13th HoDown Showdown 2023
116 Atlanta Arson Win 12-5 1743.89 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Coast Sectional Championship
248 Power Point Ultimate** Win 13-2 737.63 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Coast Sectional Championship
85 Space Cowboys Win 13-9 1730.87 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Coast Sectional Championship
61 Lost Boys Win 13-10 1794.08 Sep 9th 2023 Mens East Coast Sectional Championship
28 Tanasi Loss 10-14 1333.75 Sep 10th 2023 Mens East Coast Sectional Championship
37 Alliance Win 13-12 1752.37 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
4 Chain Lightning Loss 3-13 1611.89 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
42 UpRoar Win 14-9 2079.19 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
56 Little Red Wagon Win 13-11 1726.75 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
40 Cash Crop 2 Loss 12-14 1399.42 Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
4 Chain Lightning Loss 12-15 1911.4 Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
28 Tanasi Loss 9-11 1483.24 Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)