#89 Second Nature (20-12)

avg: 1299.6  •  sd: 54.09  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
134 Dyno Win 11-4 1626.16 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
198 Capitol City Chaos Win 13-7 1253.73 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
172 Memphis Pharaohs Win 12-8 1266.42 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
56 Little Red Wagon Loss 9-11 1248.71 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
146 Ronin Win 11-6 1498.2 Jun 25th Huntsville Huckfest
37 Alliance Loss 7-11 1160.48 Jun 25th Huntsville Huckfest
144 Music City Mafia Win 11-10 1090.1 Jun 25th Huntsville Huckfest
35 baNC Win 15-10 2097.94 Aug 12th HoDown Showdown 2023
40 Cash Crop 2 Loss 4-15 1020.37 Aug 12th HoDown Showdown 2023
101 Triumph Loss 11-12 1087.73 Aug 12th HoDown Showdown 2023
119 Tennessee Folklore Loss 13-14 975.59 Aug 13th HoDown Showdown 2023
144 Music City Mafia Win 15-9 1480.58 Aug 13th HoDown Showdown 2023
105 Dreadnought Win 9-7 1467.17 Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
218 Supercell** Win 11-3 1132.83 Ignored Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
237 Arkansas** Win 11-2 968.8 Ignored Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
214 Meadowlark** Win 11-2 1148.73 Ignored Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
116 Atlanta Arson Win 9-5 1672.95 Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
77 BARNSTORM Loss 7-13 817.22 Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
149 Rawhide Win 13-7 1484.56 Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
146 Ronin Loss 9-12 606.13 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Gulf Coast Sectional Championship
37 Alliance Loss 5-13 1027.37 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Gulf Coast Sectional Championship
124 Battleship Win 13-8 1557.08 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Gulf Coast Sectional Championship
198 Capitol City Chaos Win 13-10 1024.34 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Gulf Coast Sectional Championship
37 Alliance Loss 8-13 1131.22 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Gulf Coast Sectional Championship
124 Battleship Win 12-10 1299.04 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Gulf Coast Sectional Championship
172 Memphis Pharaohs Win 13-7 1382.8 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Gulf Coast Sectional Championship
114 Bloom Win 15-11 1530.48 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
40 Cash Crop 2 Loss 10-13 1292.23 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
4 Chain Lightning** Loss 4-13 1611.89 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
56 Little Red Wagon Win 12-10 1736.04 Sep 23rd 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
64 Hooch Win 11-9 1697.77 Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
56 Little Red Wagon Loss 8-15 933.1 Sep 24th 2023 Southeast Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)