#77 BARNSTORM (22-7)

avg: 1374.75  •  sd: 58.03  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
48 Alamode Loss 7-13 999.41 Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
102 Harvey Cats Loss 9-12 861.83 Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
97 Texas Duffy Loss 10-11 1157.15 Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
168 San Antonio Warhawks Win 13-5 1431.23 Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
203 Shrimp Discs Win 13-7 1209.56 Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
102 Harvey Cats Win 13-12 1332.19 Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
98 Riverside Win 9-8 1403.58 Jul 22nd Riverside Classic 2023
168 San Antonio Warhawks Win 11-8 1196.84 Jul 22nd Riverside Classic 2023
225 Forge** Win 13-5 1088.24 Ignored Jul 22nd Riverside Classic 2023
98 Riverside Loss 11-12 1153.58 Jul 23rd Riverside Classic 2023
125 Cowtown Cannons Win 15-10 1510.22 Jul 23rd Riverside Classic 2023
105 Dreadnought Win 14-13 1312.83 Jul 23rd Riverside Classic 2023
116 Atlanta Arson Win 11-6 1690.58 Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
208 Grit Win 13-6 1190.49 Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
103 Scythe Win 11-8 1568.69 Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
237 Arkansas** Win 12-2 968.8 Ignored Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
105 Dreadnought Win 9-5 1716.89 Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
89 Second Nature Win 13-7 1857.13 Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
105 Dreadnought Win 12-8 1628.99 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Ozarks Sectional Championship
218 Supercell Win 13-7 1090.36 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Ozarks Sectional Championship
149 Rawhide Win 13-5 1527.02 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Ozarks Sectional Championship
255 Dreadnought: Battleship [B]** Win 13-3 524.74 Ignored Sep 10th 2023 Mens Ozarks Sectional Championship
149 Rawhide Win 10-8 1189.69 Sep 10th 2023 Mens Ozarks Sectional Championship
98 Riverside Win 13-8 1774.74 Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mens Regional Championship
8 Johnny Bravo** Loss 4-15 1512.77 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mens Regional Championship
125 Cowtown Cannons Win 11-9 1305.82 Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mens Regional Championship
54 ISO Atmo Win 10-9 1644.35 Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mens Regional Championship
48 Alamode Loss 9-11 1307.73 Sep 24th 2023 South Central Mens Regional Championship
68 Brawl Loss 7-14 835.66 Sep 24th 2023 South Central Mens Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)