#179 Frostbite (10-11)

avg: 646.15  •  sd: 71.54  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
115 Queen City Gambit Loss 10-11 872.8 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
241 PanIC Win 11-9 391.01 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
128 Mousetrap Loss 8-12 473.8 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
209 Mastodon Win 11-6 1010.06 Jul 8th Heavyweights 2023
170 Boomtown Pandas Win 11-10 852.04 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
145 Madison United Mixed Ultimate Loss 7-10 434.55 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
236 Mad City Vibes Win 13-6 833.02 Jul 9th Heavyweights 2023
135 Point of No Return Loss 7-10 471.85 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
165 Prion Loss 7-11 294.83 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
225 Arms Race Win 13-6 922.21 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
189 Great Minnesota Get Together Loss 5-10 -7.01 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 34
159 Pandamonium Win 15-9 1301.33 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
165 Prion Loss 7-11 294.83 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
131 Stackcats Win 11-9 1139.98 Aug 20th Cooler Classic 34
109 Pushovers Loss 4-13 425.51 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
209 Mastodon Loss 9-11 214.16 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
182 Melt Loss 7-11 153.17 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
76 Bantr Loss 5-13 584.05 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
189 Great Minnesota Get Together Win 11-8 932.5 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
209 Mastodon Win 14-5 1063.36 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
145 Madison United Mixed Ultimate Win 9-8 949.22 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Northwest Plains Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)