#102 Space Ghosts (16-15)

avg: 1038.16  •  sd: 55.45  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
74 Sego Win 10-8 1454.01 Jun 24th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
1 shame.** Loss 4-15 1567.21 Ignored Jun 24th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
80 Flagstaff Ultimate Loss 12-13 1017.99 Jun 24th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
41 California Burrito Loss 6-10 992.06 Jun 24th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
74 Sego Loss 10-12 953.22 Jun 25th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
144 The Strangers Loss 7-11 362.27 Jun 25th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
197 Springs Mixed Greens Win 12-8 982.48 Jun 25th Colorado Summer Solstice 2023
197 Springs Mixed Greens Win 13-6 1141.33 Jul 8th Colorado Cup
144 The Strangers Loss 10-12 591.04 Jul 8th Colorado Cup
101 Green Chiles Win 13-8 1540.42 Jul 8th Colorado Cup
117 Garrett's Prom Date Loss 8-11 622.96 Jul 8th Colorado Cup
166 All Jeeps, All Night. Win 12-10 999.74 Jul 9th Colorado Cup
117 Garrett's Prom Date Win 13-12 1113.57 Jul 9th Colorado Cup
101 Green Chiles Win 12-7 1564.77 Jul 9th Colorado Cup
74 Sego Loss 10-13 863.2 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
100 Igneous Ultimate Win 10-9 1170.47 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
144 The Strangers Loss 10-11 704.16 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2023
134 Sin Nombre Loss 6-9 444.27 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
139 Karma Win 11-8 1217.57 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
157 Mesteño Win 12-10 1025.45 Aug 20th Ski Town Classic 2023
134 Sin Nombre Win 15-13 1077.01 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
197 Springs Mixed Greens Win 15-4 1141.33 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
28 Flight Club Loss 4-15 1035.27 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
140 Mostly Harmless Win 15-12 1149.56 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
101 Green Chiles Win 14-10 1442.96 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
32 Mile High Trash Loss 6-15 962.85 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Rocky Mountain Sectional Championship
1 shame.** Loss 2-15 1567.21 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
239 Central Arkansas Surge** Win 15-4 770 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
101 Green Chiles Win 9-8 1169.26 Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
21 Love Tractor** Loss 4-15 1107.03 Ignored Sep 24th 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
30 Waterloo Loss 3-15 1015.31 Sep 24th 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)