#30 Waterloo (19-9)

avg: 1615.31  •  sd: 72.39  •  top 16/20: 0.9%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
123 Amber Win 13-8 1460.8 Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
239 Central Arkansas Surge** Win 13-1 770 Ignored Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
151 Dallas Nightfall** Win 13-3 1402.36 Ignored Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
19 Public Enemy Loss 7-10 1348.86 Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
228 Scoober Heroes** Win 13-4 910.05 Ignored Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
123 Amber** Win 10-3 1564.64 Ignored Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
3 AMP Loss 8-10 1805.18 Jul 15th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
6 Sprocket Loss 10-11 1799.96 Jul 15th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
50 Jughandle Win 10-5 1967.35 Jul 15th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
46 Revival Win 12-10 1674.18 Jul 16th TCT Pro Elite Challenge East 2023
10 Red Flag Loss 6-14 1276.21 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
57 Steamboat Win 14-8 1875.44 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
73 Northern Comfort Win 13-5 1794.2 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight East 2023
29 RAMP Win 12-11 1747.75 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
28 Flight Club Loss 9-15 1119.79 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
25 MOONDOG Loss 11-12 1523.28 Jul 30th TCT Select Flight East 2023
19 Public Enemy Win 13-7 2296.06 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
85 Risky Business Win 13-4 1726.47 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
228 Scoober Heroes** Win 13-3 910.05 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
154 Moontower** Win 13-3 1394.6 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
19 Public Enemy Loss 9-12 1393.16 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
85 Risky Business Win 15-6 1726.47 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
142 Goosebumps** Win 13-4 1443.61 Ignored Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
28 Flight Club Loss 9-11 1386.06 Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
239 Central Arkansas Surge** Win 15-1 770 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
101 Green Chiles Win 15-6 1644.26 Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
19 Public Enemy Loss 7-13 1180.99 Sep 24th 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
102 Space Ghosts Win 15-3 1638.16 Sep 24th 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)