#84 Buffalo Lake Effect (19-13)

avg: 1130.22  •  sd: 49.54  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
96 Bench Loss 7-8 942.59 Jun 11th Rochester Round Robin
207 Buffalo Brain Freeze** Win 13-3 1079.62 Ignored Jun 11th Rochester Round Robin
40 UNION Loss 4-13 891.86 Jun 11th Rochester Round Robin
48 Townies Loss 7-11 935.97 Jun 11th Rochester Round Robin
183 Starfire Win 9-5 1132.03 Jun 24th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
149 ColorBomb Win 10-5 1379.21 Jun 24th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
59 Greater Baltimore Anthem Win 10-8 1571.7 Jun 24th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
119 Mashed Win 10-7 1373.65 Jun 24th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
141 PS Win 9-7 1123.91 Jun 25th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
68 Heat Wave Win 9-8 1361.17 Jun 25th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
55 Garbage Plates Win 8-5 1795.87 Jun 25th LVU’s Disc Days of Summer 2023
95 Scarecrow Win 10-9 1193.5 Jul 8th AntlerLock
218 Sugar Shack** Win 15-6 997.47 Ignored Jul 8th AntlerLock
44 The Buoy Association Win 12-9 1819.38 Jul 8th AntlerLock
111 Lampshade Loss 8-10 742.75 Jul 8th AntlerLock
120 WHUF [B] Loss 10-11 846.88 Jul 8th AntlerLock
96 Bench Win 5-4 1192.59 Jul 9th AntlerLock
178 Eat Lightning Win 11-7 1116.28 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
242 Ultra Instinct** Win 13-2 710.9 Ignored Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
146 Heavy Flow Win 12-7 1344.5 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
95 Scarecrow Loss 6-7 943.5 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
62 Funk Loss 9-10 1136.89 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
55 Garbage Plates Loss 5-12 742.27 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
96 Bench Win 10-7 1457.26 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Upstate New York Sectional Championship
119 Mashed Win 9-7 1263.33 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Upstate New York Sectional Championship
217 Compost Plates** Win 13-4 1002.26 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Upstate New York Sectional Championship
40 UNION Loss 7-13 934.32 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Upstate New York Sectional Championship
48 Townies Loss 10-13 1074.72 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Upstate New York Sectional Championship
78 Deadweight Win 10-9 1286.64 Sep 23rd 2023 Northeast Mixed Regional Championship
40 UNION Loss 8-13 995.7 Sep 23rd 2023 Northeast Mixed Regional Championship
68 Heat Wave Loss 7-12 715.66 Sep 23rd 2023 Northeast Mixed Regional Championship
64 Obscure Loss 12-15 949.88 Sep 24th 2023 Northeast Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)