#48 Townies (16-8)

avg: 1402.86  •  sd: 59.4  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
84 Buffalo Lake Effect Win 11-7 1597.11 Jun 11th Rochester Round Robin
217 Compost Plates Win 11-5 1002.26 Jun 11th Rochester Round Robin
40 UNION Loss 9-13 1073.29 Jun 11th Rochester Round Robin
119 Mashed Win 13-3 1583.99 Jun 11th Rochester Round Robin
64 Obscure Win 13-8 1746.53 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
183 Starfire Win 13-9 1021.53 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
158 Lobrid Win 13-7 1343.48 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
111 Lampshade Win 11-8 1371.03 Jul 15th Boston Invite 2023
96 Bench Loss 10-11 942.59 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
96 Bench Loss 10-11 942.59 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
217 Compost Plates** Win 13-0 1002.26 Ignored Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
130 Zero Strategy Win 13-8 1387.64 Aug 19th Ow My Knee 2023
207 Buffalo Brain Freeze** Win 13-4 1079.62 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Upstate New York Sectional Championship
- Crash Win 13-8 1360.39 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Upstate New York Sectional Championship
55 Garbage Plates Loss 11-12 1217.27 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Upstate New York Sectional Championship
84 Buffalo Lake Effect Win 13-10 1458.36 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Upstate New York Sectional Championship
55 Garbage Plates Loss 10-14 943.57 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Upstate New York Sectional Championship
47 Darkwing Win 12-10 1657.62 Sep 23rd 2023 Northeast Mixed Regional Championship
62 Funk Win 15-8 1826.7 Sep 23rd 2023 Northeast Mixed Regional Championship
7 XIST Loss 9-13 1502.3 Sep 23rd 2023 Northeast Mixed Regional Championship
40 UNION Win 13-11 1720.7 Sep 23rd 2023 Northeast Mixed Regional Championship
13 Slow Loss 11-13 1620.74 Sep 24th 2023 Northeast Mixed Regional Championship
45 Wild Card Win 14-12 1678.49 Sep 24th 2023 Northeast Mixed Regional Championship
7 XIST Loss 7-15 1320.86 Sep 24th 2023 Northeast Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)