#142 Goosebumps (15-15)

avg: 843.61  •  sd: 46.75  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
19 Public Enemy** Loss 4-13 1138.53 Ignored Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
85 Risky Business Loss 4-13 526.47 Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
228 Scoober Heroes Win 8-4 874.86 Jun 24th Texas 2 Finger 2023
19 Public Enemy** Loss 4-13 1138.53 Ignored Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
123 Amber Loss 7-9 685.3 Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
151 Dallas Nightfall Win 8-7 927.36 Jun 25th Texas 2 Finger 2023
201 Spice Win 11-5 1123.93 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
195 Swampbenders Win 11-9 797.76 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
155 NY Swipes Loss 7-9 511.08 Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
24 Loco** Loss 4-13 1070.85 Ignored Aug 5th Philly Open 2023
175 Philly Twist Win 10-6 1151.71 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
111 Lampshade Loss 6-13 405.42 Aug 6th Philly Open 2023
239 Central Arkansas Surge Win 11-5 770 Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
204 New Orleans Boil Win 10-8 766.8 Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
251 Trophic Cascade** Win 12-5 378.17 Ignored Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
228 Scoober Heroes Win 12-5 910.05 Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
123 Amber Loss 5-9 435.58 Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
220 Hairy Otter Win 13-3 975.26 Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
19 Public Enemy** Loss 4-13 1138.53 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
85 Risky Business Win 12-11 1251.47 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
228 Scoober Heroes Win 13-5 910.05 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
154 Moontower Win 11-9 1043.81 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
85 Risky Business Loss 10-11 1001.47 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
154 Moontower Win 13-10 1122.74 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
30 Waterloo** Loss 4-13 1015.31 Ignored Sep 10th 2023 Mixed Texas Sectional Championship
85 Risky Business Loss 7-8 1001.47 Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
21 Love Tractor** Loss 3-15 1107.03 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
32 Mile High Trash** Loss 3-12 962.85 Ignored Sep 23rd 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
239 Central Arkansas Surge Win 13-8 666.16 Sep 24th 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
101 Green Chiles Loss 6-12 464.95 Sep 24th 2023 South Central Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)