#139 Hazard (9-8)

avg: 974.12  •  sd: 73.48  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
166 Enigma Win 15-2 1439.67 Jun 17th SCINNY1
- Flying Pig Win 11-8 888.52 Jun 17th SCINNY1
117 Chimney Loss 7-15 519.57 Jun 17th SCINNY1
130 Diesel Win 7-4 1536.82 Jun 18th SCINNY1
75 Flying Dutchmen Loss 8-15 812.73 Jun 18th SCINNY1
205 On Ramp Win 13-8 1136.35 Jun 18th SCINNY1
253 Scoop** Win 13-0 648.49 Ignored Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
117 Chimney Loss 5-13 519.57 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
228 Mischief Win 12-7 987.15 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
84 Pittsburgh Stealers Loss 7-12 807.16 Aug 19th Motown Throwdown 2023
166 Enigma Win 12-5 1439.67 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
88 Black Lung Loss 6-10 806.58 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
75 Flying Dutchmen Loss 7-11 910.65 Aug 20th Motown Throwdown 2023
80 Rumspringa Loss 4-13 765.61 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Founders Sectional Championship
108 SEPDA Night Owl Loss 10-13 849.69 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Founders Sectional Championship
187 Puppies Win 13-8 1245.09 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Founders Sectional Championship
206 Rebels Win 13-7 1170.82 Sep 9th 2023 Mens Founders Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)